Apollo Program vs Manhattan Project

Whenever a need solving a complex scientific issue arises, calls often go out to start another Apollo/Manhattan Project. It is constructive to make a comparison of those two programs and determine if they are really a suitable model for today’s problems.

Cost

The media often cites the costs for these programs without accounting for inflation, otherwise known as nominal costs. That’s a serious mistake, especially when attempting to make a comparison to modern effort.

The Manhattan Project cost $1.9 billion in 1944 dollars. Adjusting for inflation, that is $27.5 billion in 2019. The average annual cost of the project is on par for annual spending on tobacco marketing. While most associate Los Alamos with the Manhattan Project, over 50% of the spending was for facilities at Oak Ridge, TN. This would include the gaseous diffusion plant to extract fissionable uranium.

The Apollo program cost $19.5 billion which equates to $150 billion in 2019. It was considerably more expensive to put a human on the Moon than to build the atomic bomb. What both programs had in common is spending spiked before their successful conclusion. Funding for the Manhattan Project peaked in 1944 and the Apollo program in 1966. Spending surged to build the industrial plants at Oak Ridge and Hanover for uranium enrichment and for the development of the Saturn V rocket. If a politician proposes a modern type project of this nature without increasing spending in the front end, it’s not a serious proposal.

Source: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf

A key difference between the two programs was spending for the Manhattan Project was secret while the Apollo program was public. In his autobiography, Man of the House, Tip O’Neill relates John McCormack’s story how then Speaker Sam Rayburn arranged funding for the atomic bomb:

Einstein estimated the project would cost two billion dollars. Not surprisingly, the president was concerned about how to allocate that kind of money without alerting either the public or the press.

“Leave it to me,” said Sam Rayburn.

The next day, Sam called all the committee and subcommittee chairmen and told them to put an extra hundred million dollars in their budgets.”

No questions were asked or meetings held while those funds were siphoned off to build the atomic bomb. In contrast, President Eisenhower mandated NASA’s work and results to be public. This was to differentiate from the highly secretive Soviet program. Funding Apollo was often contentious as it had to compete with other priorities (Vietnam War/Great Society). Public approval for Apollo spending topped 50% only once, that during the first Moon landing.

Sustainability

The Manhattan Project and Apollo Program had varying success in sustaining their mission. The key components of the Manhattan Project in Los Alamos and Oak Ridge remained in operation as national laboratories. No doubt, the Soviet success in 1947 with their own atomic bomb was the driving point. Many would argue the Manhattan Project was too sustainable. The original program built four atomic bombs. By the 1960’s, America had 30,000 nuclear warheads (the Soviets had 40,000 by the 1980’s). Since then, a series of treaties have caused a reduction of both stockpiles to a few thousand and atomic testing eliminated.

Apollo met a different fate. After the Moon landing was accomplished, President Nixon had no particular loyalty to the Kennedy inspired program. Once a recession hit in 1971, the final three missions (18-20) were cancelled. These were to be the major scientific phase of the program. Nixon directed NASA to work on the reusable Space Shuttle, thought to be a more economical means of space travel, but in reality, was more costly than expendable rockets. NASA has continued a robust planetary/observatory program, but its human program has not left Earth orbit since 1972.

Mars mission profile proposed in 1969 by Wernher von Braun. Apollo funding had peaked three years prior and would never return to that level. By the mid eighties, von Braun’s team brought to America under Operation Paperclip were under investigation for their V-2 efforts, especially the use of slave labor camps. Von Braun passed away in 1977. Credit: NASA.

Sustainability for both these programs were dependent upon political viability. During the Cold War, America felt the need to maintain nuclear superiority to the Soviet Union. While Americans generally wanted to stay ahead of the Soviet space program, this did not translate necessarily into human space exploration. NASA has far exceeded any other space agency in terms of planetary exploration, astrophysics, and Earth science. That gap is closing as developing nations such as China and India build their space programs.

Benefits

I’ll spare you the tales of NASA developing Velcro. Certainly private industry could have developed such a product. However, both programs contributed key innovations to American society.

As one might imagine, the Manhattan Project required solving complex mathematical problems. Given the urgency of the program, innovations were sought to speed up the process. John von Neumann expanded upon the IBM tabulating machines used at the project to build the first modern computer. The Apollo program began the miniaturization of the computer. While these computers were rudimentary compared to today, modern high tech has its roots in these programs.

The Manhattan Project kick started the field of nuclear medicine (used for imaging) and radiation treatments for cancer. The Apollo program contributed advancements for pacemakers, dialysis treatment, and development of CAT scan imaging. Both projects required the development of high-speed and powerful film imaging of the results of their work.

Nuclear bomb less than one millisecond after detonation. Credit: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Often overlooked, given the political nature of the Apollo program, is its scientific contributions. Prior to Apollo, there were three competing ideas how the Moon was formed – capture (Earth’s gravity captured Moon), accretion (Earth & Moon formed together), and fission (Moon split off from Earth during formation). Apollo proved all three incorrect. The generally accepted theory supported by evidence brought back by Apollo is the Moon was formed in the aftermath of a Mars sized planet colliding with Earth. The key point here is a scientific idea, no matter how impressive it may by, needs to be supported by evidence to be proven.

While spinoffs are secondary to the primary objective of these programs, as we can see, they often have powerful impacts on the economy and society in general.

Analogies

The most obvious analogy today would be addressing climate change. It’s not a perfect analogy. Climate change is much larger and more international in scope, but there are some lessons to be culled.

The urgency of climate change is similar to the Manhattan Project. If the Soviets had beaten the U.S. to the Moon, it would have been distressing but not an existential threat. However, solving climate change does not require secrecy and any innovations on that front, as with NASA work, should be in the public domain. A large scale program to combat climate change would entail the following:

An upfront surge in spending as similar to both the Manhattan Project and Apollo, the time frame to solve this problem is exceedingly short.

A realization that such an effort will rely on a mixture of government/university/private sector initiatives. The worst thing we could do is introduce ideology into the program i.e. must be an all government or private sector effort. All 3,000,000 parts of the Saturn V was designed and built by private contractors. DuPont produced plutonium and Kellex designed the uranium enrichment plants for the Manhattan project.

What should the government do and what should be left to the private sector?

Historically, government has performed best at providing an infrastructure the private sector can innovate upon. Infrastructure can take many forms including transportation, research centers, and the internet (developed by state universities and CERN). NASA, for one, provides intensive remote sensing of Earth to monitor the climate.

As challenging as the problem of climate change appears, it has one major advantage over the Manhattan Project and Apollo. There are market forces sustaining the advancements to reduce carbon emissions. The cost of renewable energy is now competitive with fossil fuels. Unlike space exploration, where Pan-Am flights to the Moon were once envisioned, market forces now favor investment and research into renewable energy.

As hard as our current president might try, he’ll not be able to cancel the fight against climate change as Nixon cancelled Apollo.

But, and this is a big but, it will be difficult to provide an accurate cost estimate. Any program that relies on the invention of new technology to bring to completion will have this problem. It’s not like repaving a road. Budget overruns of this nature often provoke political blowback. Here is where political leadership is required to keep moving a program forward.

If, as is often said, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”, taking the proper lessons from history along with some flexibility will enable us to solve today’s most urgent problems. Things looked bleak in 1941 and 1960, but a strong effort and resolve overcame the odds.

  • Image atop post – left: Trinity Test, credit: Department of Energy, right: launch of Apollo 11, credit: NASA.

The American Eclipse of 2017

On November 18, 1805, the Lewis and Clark expedition explored Cape Disappointment off the Pacific coast in what is now Oregon.  This concluded an 18 month journey to reach the Pacific Northwest.  Today, the Cape is home to a state park which includes the Lewis and Clark Interpretive Center.  On August 21, 2017, some 150 miles south, a solar eclipse will begin its race across the United States eastward until it exits into the Atlantic at Charleston, South Carolina.  If you intend to travel to view the eclipse, several spots along the path of totality offer short day trips to some interesting historical spots.  With proper planning, you can combine science and history in your trip.

Google and NASA has put together a neat interactive map for the eclipse that allows you to determine the time of totality for any given location.  Below is how the eclipse enters the United States in Oregon starting at 10:15 A.M. PDT in the morning.

Credit: Google Maps
Credit: Google Maps

“men appear much Satisfied with their trip beholding with estonishment the high waves dashing against the rocks & this emence ocian.” – Lewis and Clark Journal, November 18, 1805.

If you are not from the Northwest, you might think this was a poor spot to view the eclipse as the climate is notorious for rain.  However, most of the rain falls from October to March and the eclipse occurs during the driest month of the year for this region.  Salem averages less than half an inch of rain for the entire month of August compared to over six inches in December.  Salem will experience 1:53 of totality compared to 2:00 in the center of the shadow.  This site has the added benefit of a major airport in Portland 45 miles north.  And north of Portland, you can trace the trail of Lewis and Clark as they reached the Pacific along the Columbia River in the Lewis and Clark National Historical Park.  From there, you can move on to Cape Disappointment to the Lewis and Clark Interpretive Center to take in the Pacific at the North Head Lighthouse.

North Head Lighthouse at Cape Disappointment. Credit: Wiki Commons

After Oregon, the path of totality enters Wyoming just south of Yellowstone National Park then eastward.  The city of Casper is near the center of the path and will experience totality for 2:25.  Casper is also very dry in August, averaging less than an inch a rain during the month.  The airport in Casper is serviced by Delta and United Airlines with the major connections at Denver and Las Vegas.  While in Casper, you can visit the National Historic Trails Interpretive Center which has exhibits on the Oregon, California, Mormon, and Pony Express Trails.  If you are feeling adventurous, there are several spots in Wyoming where the ruts of the wagon trains are still embedded in the ground.  One such spot is the “Parting of the Ways”

Parting of the Ways, Credit: National Park Service.

“If any young man is about to commence the world, we say to him, publicly and privately, Go to the West” – Horace Greeley in the New Yorker, August 25, 1838.

There is a bit of a historical dispute on this spot.  Some claim this is where the Oregon and California trails branched off.  The more accepted version is the right fork was the Sublette Cutoff which was a shortcut, but presented 50 miles of waterless trails.  The left fork led to Fort Bridger and was a longer, but less riskier passage.  Either way, it is an awesome piece of natural preservation.  This is pretty rugged territory and a four wheel drive is recommended along with stocking up on supplies as there won’t be a 7-11 around the corner.  Directions and background on this site can be found here.  The Parting of the Ways is a four hour drive from Casper.

Casper
Credit: Google Maps.

History always has two sides, and the other side of the westward expansion can be found 200 miles north of Casper at Little Bighorn Battlefield National Monument.  Here is where Cheyenne and Lakota forces defeated General Custer’s 7th Calvary Regiment.  The site houses memorials to both sides of the conflict.  Millions of Native Americans were eventually killed as a result of war, disease, and forced relocation over the course of several centuries as European descendants made their way westward into the Americas.

After Wyoming, the path of totality barrels through Nebraska including the town of North Platte, also part of the Oregon Trail.  Then through Missouri, the eclipse travels over the northern part of the Metro Kansas City area including the Harry S.Truman Library and Museum in Independence ten miles east of the city.  Totality lasts about a minute over the museum, to experience over two minutes of totality, you’ll want to head towards the center line in the map below.  St. Joseph will enjoy 2:38 of total darkness.  As you move east, the climate gets wetter, meaning cloud cover becomes more of a possibility.  Kansas City averages almost four inches of rain in August.

KC
Credit: Google Maps

“We must build a new world, a far better world — one in which the eternal dignity of man is respected.” – Harry S. Truman address to the United Nations Conference, April 25, 1945.

The Truman Library has exhibits on the end of World War II, including the decision to drop the atomic bomb, the start of the Cold War, and the upset win in the 1948 election as well as his formative years serving in World War I.  To learn more about Truman’s early life, there is the Harry S. Truman National Historic Site which was his home.  This site preserves over 50,000 objects related to Truman.

Harry S Truman National Historic Site, Credit: National Park Service.

Independence was also the starting point for the Oregon, California, and Santa Fe Trails.  This is commemorated in the National Frontier Trails Museum.  The museum contains pioneer narratives, a public research library, as well as a Lewis and Clark exhibit as the expedition stopped there early in their journey.

From Kansas City, the path of totality heads towards St. Louis and the Gateway Arch.  If you like country music, Nashville will experience totality, then the eclipse moves directly towards the Great Smokey Mountains National Park.  The best way to reach this region is to fly into Knoxville which is less than an hour away.  One caveat here, there’s a reason they are called the Great Smokey Mountains and that is because…they are smokey.  The region receives 50-80 inches of rainfall per year.  And this, of course, can reduce the visibility of the eclipse.

Credit: Gregory Pijanowski
Great Smokey Mountains, Credit: Gregory Pijanowski

Still, if you decide to go this route, you will not be disappointed by the scenery.  This is the most visited national park with over ten million taking in the vistas annually.  There is also no charge to enter the park.

Knoxille
Credit: Google Maps

“We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried, most people were silent. I remembered the line from the Hindu scripture, the Bhagavad-Gita. Vishnu is trying to persuade the Prince that he should do his duty and to impress him takes on his multi-armed form and says, “Now, I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.” I suppose we all thought that one way or another.” – J. Robert Oppenheimer on the first atomic explosion, quote televised in 1965.

Less than a half hour from Knoxville is the formally secret town of Oak Ridge.  Secret in that this was where uranium was enriched during the Manhattan Project for the atomic bomb.  The K-25 gaseous diffusion plant was a U-shaped building a half a mile long with some 2,000,000 square feet of floor space.  Eventually, 12,000 people were employed at the plant and was so designed that they were not aware what they were producing due to the secretive nature of the project.  The plant was demolished in 2014, but the American Museum of Science and Energy offers exhibits on the history of the Manhattan Project and nuclear energy.  The museum offers bus tours of the historic Oak Ridge facilities which are now part of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Finally, the path of totality moves into South Carolina, over Charleston, and out into the Atlantic Ocean at 2:49 P.M. EDT, ninety-three minuets after touching down in Oregon.  Charleston will experience a minute and half of totality, situating yourself towards the center of the path of totality will stretch out total darkness for two and a half minutes.

Charelston
Credit: Google Maps

“The last ray of hope for preserving the Union peaceably expired at the assault upon Fort Sumter.” – Abraham Lincoln, First Annual Message, December 3, 1861.

As anyone who has lived down South can tell you, Summer is the rainy season and Charleston is no exception averaging over six inches of rain in August.  Still, if you make Charleston your destination, there is an excellent historical district downtown and in the harbor, Fort Sumter National Monument where the Civil War started on April 12, 1865 when Confederate forces attacked the fort.

Fort Sumter, Credit: NPS

As the eclipse moves from Oregon, across the Great Plains, and through the South, its path crosses over or near some of the history that helped define the United States as a nation from our westward expansion, the Civil War, to the emerging superpower at the end of World War II.  Not all of the history has been pretty, the push west resulted in the deaths of millions of Native Americans.  Over 700,000 died in the Civil War that abolished slavery, but did not give African-Americans total equality, the atomic bomb ended World War II, but gave humanity the ability to terminate its existence.  Those events also gave us the great cities on the West Coast, our current African American president, and a peaceful relationship with a democratic Japan that has lasted since 1945.  With history, you take the successes alongside the failures.

*Image atop of post is solar eclipse on March 20, 2015.  Credit:  Damien Deltenre/Wiki Commons.